Current Research

The Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS)

The main focus of my current research has been on development of a modeling framework which can be used to study the linkages and feedbacks between land change and ecosystem carbon balance across a range of spatial, thematic, and temporal scales. The result has been the development of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator, or LUCAS model, which is a specific application of a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) with stocks and flows (SF). I use the SyncroSim modeling software to run LUCAS, which runs on Windows and Linux operating systems. The Windows application includes a GUI for ease of use.

Collaborators: Apex Resource Management Solutions

Publications and Data

  • Daniel, C.D., Sleeter, B.M., L. Frid, M-J. Fortin, Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change, Methods in Ecology and Evolution, DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.12952
  • Daniel, C., L. Frid, B.M. Sleeter, M.J. Fortin, 2016, State-and-transition models: a framework for forecasting landscape dynamics, Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Vol 7(11), p 1413-1423, doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12597
  • Sleeter, B.M., J. Liu, C. Daniel, L. Frid, Z. Zhu, 2015, An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. AIMS Environmental Science, 2(3), 577-606. https://doi.org/10.3934/environsci.2015.2.577

Land Use and Carbon Dynamics in California

A large focus of my current research is focused on developing an understanding of the major controlling processes on ecosystem carbon dynamics for the State of California. This project has several key objectives, including development of a suite of future land use projections, integrated land use and wildfire modeling, and projections of carbon balance under a range of radiative forcing scenarios and climate models. I have developed a version of the LUCAS model specific to California. The LUCAS-CA model uses a range of state-wide databases describing historical land-use dynamics, fire projections from LeRoy Westerling’s lab at the University of Merced, and a carbon ‘gain-loss’ model calibrated using data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. This work is actively supporting California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment.

Collaborators: The Nature Conservancy, California Energy Commission, California Air Resources Board

Publications and Data

  • Sleeter, B.M., T.S. Wilson, E. Sharygin, J. Sherba, 2017, Future Scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends, Earth’s Future, DOI:10.1002/2017EF000560
  • Sleeter, B.M., Wilson, T.S., and Sherba, J.T., 2017, Land Use and Land Cover Projections for California’s 4th Climate Assessment: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/F7M61HFP
  • Sleeter, B.M., 2017, Land Use and Conservation Scenarios for California’s 4th Climate Change Assessment: U.S. Geological Survey data release, DOI: 10.5066/F7W37VFJ

National Ecosystem Carbon Assessment

In 2007, the U.S. Congress and G.W. Bush administration passed, and signed into law, the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA). Part of the bipartisan legislation called for the U.S. Department of Interior and U.S. Geological Survey to conduct an assessment of biological and geological carbon sequestration capacity while considering the effects of major controlling processes such as land-use change, disturbances such as wildfire, and climate change. The USGS’s ‘LandCarbon’ research team was formed to carry out the legislations and completed the most detailed and comprehensive assessment of biological carbon sequestration to date. As part of the original LandCarbon research team, I led the development of land-use scenarios for the assessment conducted for the contiguous U.S. For the state of Hawaii, the assessment utilized the LUCAS model. While the original assessment was ground-breaking in many ways, it was also highly complex, utilizing numerous models and methods which were not integrated, and required significant computational resources.

I am now leading an effort to streamline future assessment capabilities through development of a national LUCAS model. This model integrates future projections of land use, wildfire, and ecosystem carbon stocks and flows, all under a single user-friendly modeling environment. We have recently used these new tools to conduct a retrospective analysis of carbon dynamics across the conterminous U.S. for the period 1970-2015. The results of that study were the focus of an invited talk in a NASA Carbon Monitoring System special session at the 2016 American Geophysical Union annual conference. A paper has been submitted describing this research to Environmental Research Letters and is currently in review.

Collaborators: Apex Resource Management Solutions

Publications and Data

  • USGS LandCarbon Website
  • Sleeter, B.M., Sohl, T.L., Bouchard, M.A., Reker, R.R., Soulard, C.E., Acevedo, W., Griffith, G.E., Sleeter, R.R., Auch, R.F., Sayler, K.L., Prisley, S., Zhu, Z., 2012, Scenarios of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Conterminous United States: Utilizing the Special Report on Emission Scenarios at Ecoregional Scales, Global Environmental Change, Vol. 22(4): pp. 896-914.  IP-030516. Director’s Approval January 31, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.03.008.

Other Projects

  • Integrating the LUCAS and CBM-CFS3 Models for Land Change and Carbon Research in the United States
  • Changes in Community Exposure to Volcanic Hazards in the Pacific Northwest due to Projected Land Use and Demographic Change